Publications
fp21 is building a new culture of foreign policy. Explore our publications below.
Can We Fix American Diplomacy?
Dan Spokojny: The quality of our institutions’ policymaking processes — the ability to turn ideas into action — ought to be an essential concern for grand strategists. Upgrading the U.S. Department of State's decision-making process may be the most impactful intervention to strengthen our national security. This was the thesis for a talk and article offered to The Stimson Center's Reimagining Grand Strategy event in September.
Congressional Commission to Reform the State Department
The new Congressional Commission on Reform and Modernization of the Department of State represents a rare bipartisan consensus: the State Department remains an essential asset for U.S. national security but needs revitalization. This article proposes four questions the Commission needs to consider to set itself on a successful path.
Advice for the Inaugural Provost of the Foreign Service Institute
Dr. Cassandra C. Lewis has been appointed the inaugural Provost for the US Department of State’s Foreign Service Institute. The new Provost will oversee the curriculum used to train America's diplomats. This article offers suggestions for the new provost can make the most of this opportunity.
Ten Principles for Foreign Policy Expertise
Dan Spokojny: Guided by a theory of expertise, this articles offers ten principles that are central to the development and operationalization of expertise at the US State Department. They include embracing uncertainty, building feedback loops, investing in high quality evidence, relying on one's team, and more.
How to Embrace Uncertainty in Foreign Policy
Dan Spokojny: Managing uncertainty is a skill. It requires specialized techniques central to healthy decision-making. But when our policymakers ignore uncertainty in favor of instinct-driven assertions, they pass up opportunities to make it a little bit easier. Managing uncertainty should be a core skill for every aspiring foreign policy expert. This article is a primer on understanding how to manage uncertainty effectively.
State Department FFRDC: Public Comment for the Federal Register
Dan Spokojny: The May 17 announcement that the State Department will sponsor its first research and development center is “a huge win for diplomacy.” The State Department invited public comment about its proposal, so fp21 and our partners mobilized to respond and help push this proposal forward.
Foreign Service Journal: Can the State Department integrate promising new technology without undermining the essential human aspects of diplomacy?
Dan Spokojny's article introduces an edition of the Foreign Service Journal dedicated to the future of diplomacy, specifically how the rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), data collection and analysis, and scientific thinking can improve the conduct of international relations. It focuses on the question: With an exponential increase in the complexity of the international environment and the simultaneous advance of new technologies, how can we improve the quality of our foreign policy?
American Diplomat Podcast: AI - Demon Taking Over, or Tool for Diplomacy?
What does expertise look like in diplomacy with recent rapid changes in technology? Will AI replace diplomats? What is AI good at, and where is it dangerous? Large language models are great for brainstorming but can they replace relationships and judgment? Tune into a conversation between the host, retired Ambassador Peter Romero, and Dan Spokojny, former diplomat, now Ph.D. candidate and CEO of the nonprofit fp21, while he breaks it down for us.
A Curriculum for Foreign Policy Expertise
Dan Spokojny: What training is required to become an expert in foreign policy Foreign policy is unique among fields of public policy in that there are no educational requirements, no body of tradecraft, and no standard training regimens to prepare its leaders. This article explores four categories of knowledge that all policymakers should know.
Can you change your mind? Decision-making and the debate on AI regulation
Ellice Huang: In this Bayes Brief case study on AI regulation, I demonstrate how the simple intervention of providing a more complete knowledge base can empower policymakers and drastically improve the policy process.
How to Fix the State Department
fp21 CEO Dan Spokojny joins the podcast Statecraft, hosted by Santi Ruiz, to discuss how to improve the capacity of US foreign policy by improving the institutions themselves. The episode features some constructive debate. The full transcript is included here.
Foreign Policy Doesn't Promote Expertise: But It Could
Dan Spokojny: Research suggests that expertise (defined as “consistently superior performance”) forms in environments that provide two ingredients: a) continual feedback about the success and failure of one’s actions, and b) repeated opportunities to use that feedback to practice the aspects exposed as weaknesses.
What is Expertise? Let's ask the experts.
Dan Spokojny: It's vital we build a strong foundation for understanding expertise in foreign policy. Let's examine scholarship from cognitive psychology, political science, and other fields of research.
Raiding the Ivory Tower: How to Seek Academic Research Like an Expert
Thomas Leo Scherer, Lauren Van Metre, and Analise Schmidt: Smart policymakers know that foreign policy should be informed by the best available evidence. Too often, however, the policy process fails to seek evidence from academic research. This article offers tips to make the path easier by 1) searching better, 2) evaluating quality, and 3) creating systems to manage knowledge.
Making “Lessons Learned” Stick
Dan Spokojny: How many wars could be prevented, and how many lives saved, if only we could inject better knowledge into the bloodstream of policymaking process? Here are five observations based upon my study of lessons learned programs.
Legislating Diplomatic Reform: A Database of Bills
Ellice Huang and Sophia Brown-Heidenreich: Congress has shaped the legal authorities of the Department of State at regular intervals throughout American history, equipping American diplomacy to lead in the face of evolving international challenges. This database of foreign policy legislation to provide US foreign policy reform advocates with a comprehensive resource outlining the historical attempts of Congress to improve the State Department.
Congress Passes State Department Authorization for Third Year in a Row
Dan Spokojny: The Department of State Authorization Act of 2024 was passed by Congress and signed into law, marking the third year in a row diplomacy gets a facelift. Legislators took aim at many of the issues fp21 has prioritized in recent years, continuing to press the State Department to modernize in the face of a rapidly changing international environment.
Learning From History: A Database of Prior Reform Proposals at State
Toby Weed: fp21 created this database of State Department reform recommendations as a resource for those working to reform US foreign policy process. Too many would-be reformers proceed without reviewing the large body of work on State Department reform that has accumulated from prior attempts. Any reforms need to be carefully researched and based on the best available evidence.
American Foreign Policy Decision-Making at the Agency Level: The Department of State as Exemplar?
Jeff Jager: To coordinate and collaborate on national security issues, the State Department’s clearance process ensures that all possible stakeholders have to sign off on anything that State does. The process has some advantages but many downsides such as prioritizing consensus at the expense of policy outcomes. Jeff explains and evaluate the clearance process and considers ways forward.
Identifying Influence in Geopolitics: China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Thomas Scherer: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is China’s $1 trillion (and growing) infrastructure investment program, prompting large counter-investments from U.S. allies. But there’s a huge assumption baked into this financial arms race to exert influence: more investment causes more influence. Is that even true? New research suggests not.