State’s New Data Strategy: A (potentially) historic step

The State Department published its first-ever data strategy in September 2021, laying the groundwork for the most consequential upgrade to U.S. diplomacy in a generation.

By: Dan Spokojny | October 5, 2021

The data revolution has ushered in an age of rapid innovation and change across nearly every industry. Everything around us is being turned into data. Data helps control our energy grid, direct our response to pandemics, pilot our passenger jets, and even suggest which movies we should watch at home. Statisticians, social scientists, and software engineers are being hired in droves into such disparate industries as the military, manufacturing, and political campaigns in order to understand and improve operations through data and analytics. Leaders in even the most stalwart sectors have recognized that their work will become obsolete if they fail to harness the power of data.

Unfortunately, the institutions of U.S. foreign policy have stood stubbornly against the headwinds of change. Most foreign policy leaders continue to rely on old fashioned decision-making techniques that have evolved little in the past century (or even declined). At best, data collection and analysis remain an afterthought. At worst, some leaders actively stand in the way of the uptake of data. 

This is why the State Department’s adoption of its first ever Enterprise Data Strategy is such a big deal. It represents potentially the most impactful upgrade to U.S. diplomacy in a generation.

The times are changing. A new cohort feels less constrained by the rules of the old guard. The decline of the U.S. hegemony and the sting of withdrawal from Afghanistan have eroded the feeling of invincibility policymakers have felt since the end of the Cold War. As American influence wanes and global challenges become increasingly dire, we are overdue for a serious examination of our approaches to the policymaking process.

This data strategy provides such a platform.

A Monumental Step Forward

If you read the new State Department Enterprise Data Strategy, you can detect just how transformative the Department believes data can be for the work of diplomacy.

In the introduction to the strategy, Deputy Secretary of State Brian McKeon terms a data-powered world a “paradigm shift” and suggests that a “culture change in the Department” is required for diplomacy to thrive.

The strategy also creates a sense of urgency by invoking competition from adversaries. “While [technological innovation] has created enormous opportunities to transform the way America conducts its affairs, it has also provided those same opportunities to our adversaries.” In other words, if the United States cannot harness the power of data, our enemies are going to outsmart us.

The strategy frames Data as a “critical instrument of diplomacy.” The Department has long-struggled to explain the work of diplomacy to Congress and the American people, but data can help address that challenge. “As a responsible steward of taxpayer dollars, the Department remains committed to operational excellence and must leverage data to appropriately assess program effectiveness, pinpoint and mitigate areas of risk, and provide transparency to the public.”

The strategy is not perfect. The strategy is long on vision but short on operational details. Few specifics are offered for how the goals delineated by the strategy will be achieved, such as specific changes to promotion procedures to incentivize the proper use of data within the bureaucracy. The strategy promises that internal goals and metrics will be developed to monitor progress, but the lack of transparency is concerning.

Further, while the Department of Defense’s Data Strategy released earlier this year states that “all DoD data is an enterprise resource” and that “the DoD Chief Data Officer shall have access to all DoD data,” the State Department stops short of such a decree. This sets the stage for cumbersome turf battles over access to information. It may be easy, for example, for a regional bureau to simply deny access to arms control data to other offices. Information is power, and when that power is hoarded by parochial actors, it undermines the quality of U.S. foreign policy.

Finally, the strategy discusses the analysis of data as “products.” This is a common term in the intelligence community for an analytical report, reflecting the belief that intelligence analysts must be kept at arm's length from the policy process to avoid undue bias in their work. The word choice exposes a threat to this strategy. Data analysis should be seen as more than an analytical opinion to be “consumed” by policymakers. It is not tenable for policymakers to rely on one decision approach while the data scientists use another. Such policymakers will still trust their own instincts over the data, and little will have been achieved. Instead, data-driven policy must be incorporated as a core feature of policy processes rather than a product provided by outsiders.

Now the Real Work Begins

A strategy is not a magic wand. The changes envisioned by the Department will not happen overnight, and there will be resistance along the way. Sustained attention and effort will be required in order to achieve the vision of mainstreaming data in diplomacy.

Make no mistake, there are people in influential positions within the foreign policy establishment that are distrustful of data. Senior leaders still speak emphatically about the art of diplomacy, certain that data has little to offer their profession. There is fear in some quarters that the traditional craft of diplomacy is under threat.

Such fears are largely misplaced. Data is intended to empower decision-makers, not replace them. On the other hand, the strategy is clear: a cultural shift is necessary in order to achieve results. It would be a shame if progress stalls on this vital endeavour because senior leaders fear learning new skills and updating their toolkit.

Indeed, the clearance process for State’s Data Strategy was reportedly long and arduous. It should be. Data is power, and whoever controls this valuable resource will shape the future of diplomacy. 

The good news is that advocates for data have many allies. The original impetus for the Enterprise Data Strategy was provided by Congress’ bipartisan passage of the Foundations for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018. The case for data-driven policymaking is also being pushed by the White House, as demonstrated by Biden’s Memorandum on Restoring Trust in Government Through Scientific Integrity and Evidence-Based Policymaking. Finally, outside organizations like fp21 are urging policymakers forward.

It is time to sharpen the tools of American foreign policy.